August 2008

Somebody Find This Man a Muzzle


The Seattle Mariners, well, stink -- to put it in the nicest way possible.

They have way too many issues in that organization to blame it on one front-office executive, coach or player.

But if you are inclined to blame one specific person, starting pitcher Carlos Silva would be a great place to start.

Maybe it's the expensive free-agent contract he signed in the offseason (four years, $48 million), coupled with his horrific results. And I do mean, horrific.

You know, the 4-13 record.

Or the 5.93 ERA.

Or the 182 hits allowed in 136.2 innings.

Or the putrid .322 opponents batting average, 1.51 WHIP or 3.89 K/9.

Basically, take your pick. Silva, alongside Livan Hernandez, has been unquestionably the worst pitcher in all of baseball this season.

But that hasn't stopped Silva from calling out his teammates, as Geoff Baker wrote in the Seattle Times the other day. 

Here is some of what Silva had to say about his teammates in the story...

"I don't care if we are 40 games behind, we should have played better than this," Silva said. "For me, every game is important. For me, if we are where we are right now, we should take it one game at a time and play one day at a time. Thinking, 'We've got to win this game.' And when the day is over, 'We've got to win the next one.' "

And, this...

"Maybe half of the team wants to do the best they can," Silva said. "Take the starting rotation ... every time we cross that line, we want to do our best. No matter how many games we are behind. But maybe half of the team doesn't have that mentality. They are only thinking of finishing strong. And to put up their numbers. That's great, but that affects us. As a team, that doesn't work out."

There are plenty more gems from Silva -- remember, the SAME Silva that is 4-13 with a 5.93 ERA -- so read Baker's story.

That's my advice for you. My advice for Silva?

Look in the mirror. And then, shut your mouth.

And come to think of it, maybe you should give some of that money back to the organization. Or me, I'm kind of broke right now.

But basically, keep quiet.

The Best Career of All-Time...


Statistically, Brad Zielger is the best pitcher in Major League history.

I mean, the right-handed submariner hasn't allowed a run in his entire career. How could he not be? Granted, that career only consists of a half-season, 27 games and 35 innings of work out of the Oakland A's bullpen.

OK, so I'm stretching it a bit...he's NOT the greatest thing since sliced bread, nor is he the best pitcher ever. But he's doing something much cooler than that, anyway.

Sure, the whole no-runs-thing in 35 innings to start his career is beyond remarkable -- not to mention a slaughtering of the previous record of 25 by the immortal George McQuillan in 1907. But that's NOT EVEN CLOSE to as impressive as another streak that he has going...

And NOBODY is talking about it. Maybe because pretty much nobody has noticed.

But I have.

And I'm going to tell you what it is. But before I do, I'm going to give you a pair of statistics and see if you can figure it out on your own:

  • Batting Average Against: .194
  • Slugging Percentage Against: .194

For those astute baseball minds who figured it out, I say congratulations. For those that didn't, don't worry, I'm here to tell you...

In 35 innings pitched, Ziegler has allowed 21 hits -- good for an opponents batting average of .194. Of those 21 hits, guess how many of them went for ANY of the following: double, triple or home run?

How about...ZERO. None. Zilch. Nada. Zippo.

That's right, in 35 innings, Ziegler has yet to allow an extra-base hit. Not one. Hence, opponents have the same slugging percentage (.194) against him as they do batting average.

Remarkable. Incredible. Simply unbelievable. Perhaps the most impressive statistic I have ever seen. I legitimately cannot fathom that this is remotely possible.

I don't know how this has been overlooked. This is MUCH MORE impressive than the 0.00 ERA in 35 innings. Think about it. What is harder to do: make one bad pitch and give up a double, triple or home run OR make several bad pitches and give up a run? Heck, pitchers give up extra-base hits all the time on GOOD PITCHES.

Check out how many extra-base hits there have been in baseball this season:

  • Doubles: 6,330
  • Triples: 600
  • Home Runs: 3,450
That comes to a total of 10,380 extra-base hits. Exactly NONE of those have been allowed by Ziegler -- a 28-year-old rookie and career Minor League journeyman. Incredible.

Those 10,380 extra-base hits have come in approximately 15,360 total innings of Major League Baseball this season -- that computes to one extra-base hit every 1.5 innings or so (a little less).

So what does all this mean? Honestly, I'm not quite sure. But what I do know is this: what he's currently doing is bordering on the impossible. And I can't wait to see how long this lasts.

And while we're at it, here is more Ziegler craziness...

AAA: 1 ER in 24.1 IP (0.37 ERA)
MLB: 0 ER in 35 IP (0.00 ERA)
TOT: 1 ER in 59.1 IP (0.15 ERA)

Now THAT is how you hold down a lead as a reliever.

p.s. I just jinxed him, didn't I??


Baseball's "Franchise Players" Part II

How would you like to go up against the following lineup...

C - Russell Martin
1B - Miguel Cabrera
2B - Ian Kinsler
3B - David Wright
SS - Hanley Ramirez
OF - Ryan Braun
OF - Grady Sizemore
OF - Carlos Quentin

Yeah, didn't think so.

Those nine guys consist of my "Dream Team," the best and brightest players at their respective positions under the age of 27. Those are the guys you want anchoring your team for the next 10 years.

But wait, I have a pitching staff that's up for the challenge. These 11 pitchers (five starters, six relievers) under the age of 27 will shut down any lineup -- even the one listed above.

Good pitching beats good hitting. Every time. This "Dream Team" pitching staff would eat that lineup up...


STARTING ROTATION

Choices: Tim Lincecum, Edinson Volquez, Cole Hamels, Felix Hernandez, Matt Cain, Chad Billingsley, Zack Greinke, Rich Harden, Scott Kazmir, Johnny Cueto, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, Joba Chamberlain, Matt Garza, Clay Buchholz, Max Scherzer, Francisco Liriano, Clayton Kershaw, David Price

Why do I put myself into these positions?

I'm supposed to pick just five out of this group? Not possible.

This is a tall order, so let's get right to it and eliminate some right off the bat.

Justin Verlander: Has regressed since 2006-2007 seasons
Zach Greinke: Consistency issues, motivation issues, not as dominant as other guys here
Matt Cain: Great pitcher, but has never pitched in a meaningful game
Matt Garza: Having a great year, not all that surprisingly, but let's not get overboard.
Clay Buchholz: The no-no was no-fluke, but he's not close to ace material yet
Max Scherzer: Has yet to fully prove himself; on the mound and in the health department
Clayton Kershaw: Elite prospect, but too "green" for me to pick him as one of my five
David Price: I want to take him, but he hasn't made it to the bigs yet - so doesn't qualify
Johnny Cueto: Strikeout machine, but not a complete pitcher yet

That leaves 10 guys vying for five spots - Tim Lincecum, Edinson Volquez, Cole Hamels, Felix Hernandez, Chad Billingsley, Rich Harden, Scott Kazmir, Jon Lester, Joba Chamberlain and Francisco Liriano.

In my mind, there are two absolute stone-cold LOCKS here: Lincecum and Hernandez.

Lincecum has it all: the youth (24-years-old), the stuff (98 MPH fastball, wicked breaking ball) and the numbers (11-3 with 167 K in 150 IP). You HAVE to be that nasty to have 11 wins on a crummy team. I don't care that he's only 5-foot-11 with a funky delivery. You going to argue with those numbers??

Hernandez, or "King Felix," as he's affectionately referred to as, is an interesting case. Greatness was expected of him from Day 1 due to all the hype. He's been good (37-32, 3.74 ERA in his career) but has had some injury and consistency issues. But everyone forgets one thing...

He's ONLY 22-YEARS-OLD! He won't turn 23 until a week into the 2009 season. He's one of the better pitchers in baseball already, and he's barely old enough to drink for crying out loud. Think about how good this guy is going to be. He's like eight years away from his prime! His stuff is dazzling and he WILL win multiple Cy Young Awards in his trophy case when it's all said and done.

OK, so that's 2/5 of our rotation. Now, let's get rid of a few names: Jon Lester and Rich Harden.

Lester is a great story. I know. And I know about the no-hitter, the cancer recovery and the shutout of the Yankees. And I know about the 21-5 career record (but what I also know is that the 'win' is the most overrated and unreliable stat in all of sports. Want proof? Lester is 21-5 with a 3.90 ERA and Matt Cain is 28-38 with a 3.72 ERA). But I also know he has some serious control problems (granted, he is improving there). I simply cannot ignore 120 walks in 291 innings. He's great, but I can't trust him for the next 10 years. No way, no how.

Harden is filthy. Harden is nasty. And when Harden is healthy, he may be the most dominant starter in all of baseball. Take his 2008 stats for example: 6-2, 2.04 ERA and 131 K and 71 H in 101 IP.

But how often is this guy actually healthy? How about...pretty much never.

2007: 25.2 innings
2006: 46.2 innings
2005: 128 innings

Promise me he stays healthy, and I take him. But you can't make that promise without breaking it.

Lincecum and Hernandez in; Lester and Harden out. That leaves Volquez, Hamels, Chamberlain, Kazmir, Liriano and Billingsley for three spots.

Chamberlain is in. He's 22, and he's already dominating the AL. Need him to be a set-up man? He's one of the best. Need him to be a starter? He's keeping up with the best of 'em (3-1, 2.23 ERA, 69 K in 60 IP) Need him to close? I'm sure he'd be great at that, too. Need him to get a big strikeout? He'll get it (99 K in 84.1 IP this season; 133 K in 108.1 IP in his career).

He's only allowed 68 hits and three home runs in 84.1 innings this season, and has been progressively better in each start. He's in my rotation for the next 10 years.

So who are my final two starters? Well, I'd love to take Francisco Liriano and Edinson Volquez. Liriano is the most intriguing pitcher on the planet (and was basically the second-coming of Cy Young in 2006 at age 22) and Volquez is having the best season of the remaining contenders.

But I'm not taking either of them. Liriano has already had Tommy John Surgery at such a young age and has had MAJOR arm issues his entire career. Plus, he's only proved his worth for 1/2 of a season -- and that was two years ago. He simply cannot be the same after having Tommy John Surgery.

I love Volquez, no question. But he's already 25-years-old, and has only been this good for a half a season. And to be honest, he hasn't been all that great lately.

Last seven starts: 3-2, 5.21 ERA, 45 H and 17 BB in 38 IP (110 K)
First 15 starts: 10-1, 1.71 ERA, 65 H and 44 BB in 93.1 (29 K)

He's still the man, but he's not in my Top 5 moving forward for the next 10 years.

Getting up to speed...Lincecum, Hernandez and Chamberlain in; Lester, Harden, Liriano and Volquez out. Battling for the final two spots are Hamels, Kazmir and Billingsley.

Hamels is in. Of the three, he is the hardest to get a hit off of and the hardest to reach base against. All three are 24-years-old and have similar career numbers, but Hamels has done it for longer than Billingley has and has better control (and health) than Kazmir.

So, the final debate: Kazmir vs. Billingsley.

Advantage Kazmir: he's a left-hander, strikes out more hitters, has more experience
Advantage Billingsley: he's been healthier, has better command

These guys are virtually identical statistics-wise. But Kazmir has pitched in the harder league. And Kazmir is a lefty. To me, he's just a more dominant starter with more upside than Billingsley. I'm going with Kazmir.

THE PICKS: Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, Joba Chamberlain, Cole Hamels, Scott Kazmir


BULLPEN

Choices: Jose Arredondo, Jonathan Broxton, Taylor Bucholz, Matt Capps, Manuel Corpas, Manny Delcarmen, J.P. Howell, Jim Johnson, Carlos Marmol, Kyle McClellan, Brendan Morrow, Renyel Pinto, Rafael Perez, Ramon Ramirez, Francisco Rodriguez, Joakim Soria, Huston Street, Brian Wilson, Joel Zumaya

This is infinitely easier than picking the starting rotation. I need six relievers for this team, and it's quite clear to me who the six best pitchers in this group are: Jonathan Broxton, Carlos Marmol, Brendan Morrow, Francisco Rodriguez, Joakim Soria and Joel Zumaya.

Sure, it would be nice to have a lefty reliever in the 'pen. But with a group like that, I'm not too worried about holding leads.

THE PICKS: Jonathan Broxton, Carlos Marmol, Brendan Morrow, Francisco Rodriguez, Joakim Soria, Joel Zumaya